What peace means for deforestation: An analysis of local deforestation dynamics in times of conflict and peace in Colombia

Abstract

This analysis provides insights on deforestation dynamics in Colombia in times of conflict and peace and the different factors driving these dynamics. We used time series clustering of yearly deforestation data (2001–2018) from 708 municipalities and regression models to identify drivers that explain local-level deforestation dynamics. Municipalities were characterized by seven categories of deforestation dynamics, with six of the categories exhibiting increases in deforestation in the years after the peace agreement. Coca cultivation area, number of cattle and municipality area were the top three drivers at national, regional and category levels. However, the importance of the different variables varied according to the different spatial dimensions.