Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorSchueler, S.
dc.contributor.authorFalk, W.
dc.contributor.authorKoskela, J.
dc.contributor.authorLefevre, F.
dc.contributor.authorBozzano, M.
dc.contributor.authorHubert, J.
dc.contributor.authorKraigher, H.
dc.contributor.authorLongauer, R.
dc.contributor.authorOlrik, D.C.
dc.date.accessioned2015-05-13T13:59:58Z
dc.date.available2015-05-13T13:59:58Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.citationSchueler, S.; Falk, W.; Koskela, J.; Lefevre, F.; Bozzano, M.; Hubert, J.; Kraigher, H.; Longauer, R.; Olrik, D.C. -2014-Vulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change-Global Change Biology 20(5)-p. 1498-1511
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10568/66068
dc.description.abstractA transnational network of genetic conservation units for forest trees was recently documented in Europe aiming at the conservation of evolutionary processes and the adaptive potential of natural or man-made tree populations. In this study, we quantified the vulnerability of individual conservation units and the whole network to climate change using climate favourability models and the estimated velocity of climate change. Compared to the overall climate niche of the analysed target species populations at the warm and dry end of the species niche are underrepresented in the network. However, by 2100, target species in 33–65 % of conservation units, mostly located in southern Europe, will be at the limit or outside the species' current climatic niche as demonstrated by favourabilities below required model sensitivities of 95%. The highest average decrease in favourabilities throughout the network can be expected for coniferous trees although they are mainly occurring within units in mountainous landscapes for which we estimated lower velocities of change. Generally, the species-specific estimates of favourabilities showed only low correlations to the velocity of climate change in individual units, indicating that both vulnerability measures should be considered for climate risk analysis. The variation in favourabilities among target species within the same conservation units is expected to increase with climate change and will likely require a prioritization among co-occurring species. The present results suggest that there is a strong need to intensify monitoring efforts and to develop additional conservation measures for populations in the most vulnerable units. Also, our results call for continued transnational actions for genetic conservation of European forest trees, including the establishment of dynamic conservation populations outside the current species distribution ranges within European assisted migration schemes.
dc.format.extentp. 1498-1511
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relation.ispartofseriesGlobal Change Biology 20(5)
dc.sourceGlobal Change Biology
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATIC FACTORS
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectGENETIC RESOURCES
dc.subjectMODELS
dc.titleVulnerability of dynamic genetic conservation units of forest trees in Europe to climate change
dc.description.versionPeer-reviewed
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.subject.bioversityCLIMATIC CHANGE
cg.subject.bioversityCLIMATIC FACTORS
cg.subject.bioversityFORESTS
cg.subject.bioversityGENETIC RESOURCES
cg.subject.bioversityMODELS
cg.identifier.statusLimited Access
cg.contributor.affiliationBioversity International
cg.contributor.affiliationFederal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscapes, Austria
cg.contributor.affiliationBavarian State Institute of Forestry
cg.contributor.affiliationEcologie des Forets Mediterraneennes
cg.contributor.affiliationForest Research, UK
cg.contributor.affiliationSlovenian Forestry Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationNational Forest Centre, Slovakia
cg.contributor.affiliationMinistry of the Environment, Denmark
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12476
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.coverage.regionEUROPE


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record