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dc.contributor.authorBarongo, M.B.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBishop, Richard P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorFèvre, Eric M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKnobel, D.L.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSsematimba, A.en_US
dc.titleA mathematical model that simulates control options for African swine fever virus (ASFV)en_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and developing country instituteen_US
cg.authorship.typesCGIAR and advanced research instituteen_US
dcterms.abstractA stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91% of the pigs that would have otherwise succumbed to the disease if no intervention was implemented would be saved. However, if the combined interventions are delayed (defined as implementation from > 60 days) only 30% of ASF-related deaths would be averted. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, we recommend early implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures. Active surveillance and use of pen-side diagnostic assays, preferably linked to rapid dissemination of this data to veterinary authorities through mobile phone technology platforms are essential for rapid detection and confirmation of ASF outbreaks. This prediction, although it may seem intuitive, rationally confirms the importance of early intervention in managing ASF epidemics. The modelling approach is particularly valuable in that it determines an optimal timing for implementation of interventions in controlling ASF outbreaks.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBarongo, M.B., Bishop, R.P., Fèvre, E.M., Knobel, D.L. and Ssematimba, A. 2016. A mathematical model that simulates control options for African swine fever virus (ASFV). PLOS ONE 11(7): e0158658.en_US
dcterms.subjectanimal diseasesen_US
dcterms.subjectdisease controlen_US
dcterms.typeJournal Articleen_US
cg.subject.ilriANIMAL DISEASESen_US
cg.subject.ilriDISEASE CONTROLen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Instituteen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Liverpoolen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversity of Pretoriaen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationGulu Universityen_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US
cg.contributor.crpLivestock and Fishen_US
cg.contributor.crpAgriculture for Nutrition and Healthen_US
cg.contributor.donorWellcome Trusten_US
cg.reviewStatusPeer Reviewen_US
cg.howPublishedFormally Publisheden_US
cg.journalPLOS ONEen_US

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