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dc.contributor.authorYalew, S. G.
dc.contributor.authorMul, Marloes L.
dc.contributor.authorvan Griensven, A.
dc.contributor.authorTeferi, E.
dc.contributor.authorPriess, J.
dc.contributor.authorSchweitzer, C.
dc.contributor.authorvan Der Zaag, P.
dc.date.accessioned2016-12-06T05:40:43Z
dc.date.available2016-12-06T05:40:43Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.citationYalew, S. G.; Mul, Marloes L.; van Griensven, A.; Teferi, E.; Priess, J.; Schweitzer, C.; van Der Zaag, P. 2016. Land-use change modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin. Environments, 3(3):1-16. doi: 10.3390/environments3030021en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10568/78148
dc.description.abstractLand-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment) modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009) were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%). Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water). It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025). Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.en_US
dc.format.extent3(3):1-16.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.sourceEnvironmentsen_US
dc.subjectLAND USEen_US
dc.subjectLAND COVER CHANGEen_US
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL MODELLINGen_US
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL FACTORSen_US
dc.subjectRIVER BASINSen_US
dc.subjectCATCHMENT AREASen_US
dc.subjectSOCIOECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTen_US
dc.subjectPLANTATIONSen_US
dc.subjectFOREST MANAGEMENTen_US
dc.subjectEROSIONen_US
dc.subjectVEGETATIONen_US
dc.subjectGRASSLANDSen_US
dc.titleLand-use change modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basinen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
cg.identifier.statusOpen Accessen_US
cg.identifier.urlhttp://www.mdpi.com/2076-3298/3/3/21/pdfen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.3390/environments3030021en_US
cg.contributor.crpWATER, LAND AND ECOSYSTEMSen_US


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